Нужна ли Кассандра в ХХІ веке? (некоторые спорные размышления о социальном прогнозировании)

Abstract

The author considers some aspects of social prognosis. The article analyzes the term "Cassandra's information" understood as a high precise prognostication with a great deal of negative information, which is often rejected. The number of illustrative examples of prognoses unaccepted both by public opinion and authorities are suggested. The necessity of registration of social consequences of different kinds of innovations which came into life in 10-15 years is emphasised. Some types of social indexes influencing the possible scenarios of the countries' future development are analysed. The author comes to a conclusion about necessity of complex problems decision by specialists in social prognostication in such a way: to supply objective information and, at the same time, not to enlarge the population's anxiety coefficient.