Моделирование финансово-экономического развития области: опыт проектирования и реализации крупно масштабной информационно-аналитической системы

Abstract

Розкрито зміст, розглянуто проблеми та наведено досвід формування великомасштабної інформаційно-аналітичної системи, призначеної для економіко-математичного моделювання фінансово-економічного розвитку області, побудови середньострокових сценаріїв розвитку й оцінки наслідків господарських рішень, що приймаються органами влади та економічними суб'єктами.

Раскрыто содержание, рассмотрены проблемы и приведен опыт формирования крупномасштабной информационно-аналитической системы, предназначенной для экономико-математического моделирования финансово-экономического развития области, построения среднесрочных сценариев развития и оценки последствий хозяйственных решений, принимаемых органами власти и экономическими субъектами.

The content, relevant problems and experience of forming the large-scale informational and analytic system (IAS), designed and created in the Institute of economy of industry of the NAS of Ukraine, are developed. IAS is assigned for the economic and mathematical modelling of the financial and economic development of a region, construction of medium-term scenarios of development, and assessment of consequences of economic decisions accepted by the central authorities and economic units (population of a region, small and large firms and organizations). IAS comprises mathematical models of the region's economy; statistical and other relevant information databases that are essential for the designing and verification of these models; software that provides users the possibility of the practical application of IAS; organisation of the management of a single complex of IAS. In the article the methodology is exposed and the choice of economic and mathematical modelling tools is grounded, the short mathematical description of the complex of models, which constitute IAS, is provided. In turn, these models are subdivided into three groups: (I) objective models (mathematical analogues of the items, processes and phenomena from which the region's economy consists of); (II) models of financial and economic regulators (the mathematical analogues of the actions that subjects of regulation take, which have influence on social and economic processes in the region's economy in order to achieve the prescribed parameter); (III) models of integration of the economies of separate regions in a unified system. Besides the abovementioned, the description of the technologies of the informational support of the complex of IAS models, their parameterisation, adjustment and verification are offered in the article, as well as the peculiarities of the programming and organizational providing, application on practice and technical support service.