Народжуваність в Україні: вплив сучасних тенденцій на перспективи формування та майбутні характеристики людського капіталу

Abstract

У статті проведено індексний аналіз спеціального коефіцієнта народжуваності в 2003–2008 роках. Визначено вплив повікової народжуваності та вікової структури жінок репродуктивного віку на народжуваність міського і сільського населення регіонів України.

В статье анализируется динамика специального коэффициента рождаемости в 2003–2008 годах. Проведен индексный анализ влияния возрастной структуры женщин репродуктивного возраста и повозрастных коэффициентов рождаемости городского и сельского населения по регионам Украины.

In the article the index analysis of the special coefficient of birth-rate is conducted in 2003-2008 years. Certainly influence of age-old birth-rate and age-dependent structure of women of genital age on the birth-rate of urban and rural population of regions of Ukraine. Considerable influence of improvement of age-dependent structure of women of genital age is set on a birth-rate in all regions of urban population of Ukraine. In rural locality this factor plays as negative so positive role. Influence of urbanization of population is on the whole marked on a birth-rate in the regions of Ukraine. Thus a rural population has higher variation of age-old birth-rate. In 2008 year a quantity of women age 0-14 years is on 38,5% less than, than by age 15-30 years, that is why on a prospect.

In the article the index analysis of the special coefficient of birth-rate is conducted in 2003-2008 years. Certainly influence of age-old birth-rate and age-dependent structure of women of genital age on the birth-rate of urban and rural population of regions of Ukraine. Considerable influence of improvement of age-dependent structure of women of genital age is set on a birth-rate in all regions of urban population of Ukraine. In rural locality this factor plays as negative so positive role. Influence of urbanization of population is on the whole marked on a birth-rate in the regions of Ukraine. Thus a rural population has higher variation of age-old birth-rate. In 2008 year a quantity of women age 0-14 years is on 38,5% less than, than by age 15-30 years, that is why on a prospect the decline of birth-rate is forecast due to diminishing of amount of women of genital age.