Концепция сценарного финансового планирования и прогнозирования на железнодорожном транспорте

Abstract

Запропоновано методичний підхід до визначення фінансової безпеки страхової компанії. Розроблено моделі основних зв'язків фінансової безпеки із проміжною системою показників збитковості страхової суми та фінансовою стійкістю страхової компанії. Ключові слова: фінансова безпека, критерії фінансової безпеки, моделі фінансової безпеки.

Рассмотрены методологические проблемы финансового планирования и прогнозирования на железнодорожном транспорте и обоснована необходимость разработки и внедрения методологии, основанной на учете особенностей функционирования отрасли. Предложена концепция сценарного финансового планирования и прогнозирования, реализация которой позволит учитывать нестационарность институциональной среды отрасли. Ключевые слова: финансовое планирование, прогнозирование, сценарный подход, концепция, железнодорожный транспорт.

Nonstationarity of the railroads institutional environment has extremely negative impact on the predictability of its operations and, consequently, control over the short and long term. This problem is exacerbated by the implementation of the reform programs in the branch, affecting production, financial and economic processes. One of the tools that can affect the level of management in the branch is planning (financial planning). In the financial planning methodology should be reflected the features of display and perform their finance functions including cash distribution and control in railroads. The present practice of financial planning in railroads does not meet the current institutional environment, so there is a need to develop and introduce the concept based on a fundamentally different approach to financial planning and forecasting in the branch. As such an approach can be used scenario approach (scenario planning), allow not only predicting the future, but also studying and monitoring the dynamics of the external environment and its impact on the functioning and development of the branch. In the article an approach to implement the scenario financial planning in railroads is proposed based on the forecasting of its financial flows by the type of activity (operating, investing and financing). Possibility of this approach using may be explained by the features of the functioning and development of the railroads in nonstationary institutional environment as the interaction of the process of generating its incoming and outcoming financial flows. Implementation of scenario financial planning and forecasting in management practices at railroads should include changes in the organization financial and economic activities of the branch, the system of financial plans and forecasting and the organization of the planned work. In the article the directions of implementation of scenario financial planning and forecasting for railroads are determined: consistently implementa unified national program of reforms in railroads based on a complex vision of its future; change the current legal and regulatory framework of financial planning; develop the methodology and technology for scenario financial planning and forecasting in the branch; make the necessary changes in the organization of planning work; develop a system to monitor the actual implementation of financial plans and forecasts. Keywords: financial planning, forecasting, scenario approach, concept, railroads.