Оцінювання структурних змін у промисловості України

Abstract

Запропоновано оцінювати структурні зміни у промисловості за допомогою регресійного аналізу темпів зростання частки валової доданої вартості в обсязі випуску продукції промисловості в цілому та в розрізі її 17 підгалузей. За допомогою цього підходу визначено прогресивні види промислової діяльності. Ключові слова: структурні зміни, валова додана вартість, регресійна модель, математичне моделювання, міжгалузевий баланс.

Предлагается оценивать структурные изменения в промышленности с помощью регрессионного анализа темпов роста доли валовой добавленной стоимости в объеме выпуска продукции промышленности в целом и в разрезе ее 17 подотраслей. С помощью этого подхода определены прогрессивные виды промышленной деятельности. Ключевые слова: структурные изменения, валовая добавленная стоимость, регрессионная модель, математическое моделирование, межотраслевой баланс.

The evaluation of the structural changes is an advanced macroeconomic trend aimed at solving the problems of disproportions present both in the industry and throughout the national economics. In this area there are many published scientific works of Ukrainian and Russian scientists, and materials of international organizations. Typically, in this type of analysis the data from the input-output balance are used. Experts argue that progressive structural changes in the economics should lead to an increase in the share of manufacturing products with the high gross value added. However, the processes of macroeconomic modeling of structural changes in terms of increasing the share of the gross value added in industry remain not studied enough, which results in the urgency of this article. The purpose of this article is to define the progressive industrial activities based on the assessment of structural changes in the Ukrainian industry using mathematical modeling. As input data for the evaluation of structural changes in the industry, the information on the gross value added and production output in the context of 17 industrial activities from the "input-output" tables in the basic prices for the period 2001-2010 was collected. At the first step it is necessary to calculate the annual rate of growth of the gross value added part in the product yield for every kind of industry and the industry in whole. At the second step it is necessary to build on this base the regression model and identify statistically significant coefficients. Thus, we get the kinds of industrial activities, which determine the rate of growth of gross value added part in the production output. It is also necessary to confirm or deny the quality of the constructed regression model through the comprehensive hypothesis checking concerning the legality of the regression use. According to the constructed model the progressive industrial activities in Ukraine for the period 2001-2010, which have provided the largest contribution to the positive growth of gross value added part in the production volume of the industry, are: 1) production of food products, beverages and tobacco products; 2) production of other non-metallic mineral products (which includes the production of glass, ceramics, bricks, cement, concrete, lime, dry and gypsum construction mixes, ornamental and building stone, abrasive products). Keywords: structural changes, gross value added, regression model, mathematical modeling, input-output balance.